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Abstract

n??EI Nino climate reduced the output of vegetable oil and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio. Vegetable oil in China has been in the process of destocking, thus the inventory is declining.

n??Reduction of soybean supply may shrink the output of soybean oil in 2018. Official reserve of rapeseed oil has declined 90% after destocking in past years. The palm oil output also grew slower and per unit yield may decrease caused by Malaysian palm trees¡¯ ageing. In sum, the supply of vegetable oil will be under expectation.

n??Since the supply is under expectation, buying on the dips is recommended. Meanwhile, longing soybean oil-to-meal ratio and soybean oil basis shall be considered.

???Demand-supply of vegetable oil becomes tight

???Unoptimistic prospect of soybean oil supply

???Continuous destocking of rapeseed oil

???Declined yield per acre may drag down the supply of palm oil

???Investment strategy recommendation

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